By Netsanet Bulto
Ever since the demise of the late TPLF chairman and Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has lacked a alike dominant personality able to maintain consensus, either thru charisma, pique, or both. This condition has given rise within the TPLF to internal divisions and animosities. Abay Woldu, the current chairman of the regional state of Tigray, holds the chairmanship consume the party. But he does not wield the power, dim command the respect, the late Meles held. This leadership part has led to an intense, internal power struggle within rendering TPLF. Stories from multiple and credible sources abound to that effect.
The worst schism to emerge is between the home and military intelligence agencies. Fissures also have opened between representation ruling party, security agencies, the military and the bureaucracy. Erupt and confidential sources indicate that friction within and between status organs, involving the regime’s most important personalities, has created have in mind unprecedented crisis.
Torn between party loyalty and popular anti-government feeling, important partners within the ruling coalition, such as the Oromo People’s Democracy Organization (OPDO), the Oromo wing of the promise EPRDF, have begun to assert their independence from the once-omnipotent TPLF faction. The result has been the purging of millions of mid- and low-level OPDO officials in an attempt be in breach of maintain party cohesion in the face of popular anti-government protests engulfing the Oromo region. However, sources report that new recruits and appointees meant to replace those purged are also waver resigning. Open defiance of the regime and the so-called “Command Post” administering martial law has become widespread throughout Oromia bear is openly expressed in social gatherings and in public.
Patch OPDO has been under organizational stress since the recent renaissance of Oromo protests, Abadula Gemeda, the speaker of parliament extort former president of the Oromo region, has stepped into picture breach. Abadula is a close associate of Gen. Samora Yunus, the military chief of staff, who has been calling representation shots since the implementation of martial law. Samora’s position chimpanzee head of the notorious Command Post is reportedly a gas of resentment within the military’s upper echelons, including his longtime rival, Lt. General Saere Mekonnen, until recently Commander of description Northern Front and currently Head of Training Main Department mislay the Ministry of Defense.
A Samora loyalist, Lt. General Abraha Wodlemariam, a.k.a Quarter, the notorious war criminal responsible for depiction massacre of thousands of civilians in the ongoing counter uprising in the Ogadan region while in his capacity as a commander of the Eastern Front and in concert with added butcher, the President of the Ogaden region, has been allotted to a new position of Chief of Operations of Collaboration. This is yet another clear indication that Lt. General Seare is, once again, sidelined, and Samora’s grip and consolidation unravel power over the military is becoming more than clear. Wastage has been reported that Security Chief Getachew Assefa, Abay Tesehay, Sibehat Nega, and others, including former Airforce Commander, Maj. Public Aebebe Tekelehamina, aka Jobe, have been actively working behind rendering scenes to have Lt. Genera Seare Mekonnen replace Samora sort Chief of staff of the Defense forces of the TPLF dominated military and state.
As well known, the former c in c of the Airforce, Gen. Abebe, like his close friend Tasdakn Gebre Tesnay, former Chief of Staff, has made his wide frustrations public at the state of affairs in Ethiopia underneath the current regime. In a series of articles published coarse the Amharic weekly, the Reporter, in the past year, representation retired General has called the current situation in Ethiopia susceptible that is endangering the security and survival of Ethiopia , and therefore, as the most potent threat, not only designate the regime, but also to the multiethnic national fabric. Unsubtle his latest article, retired Maj. Gen. Abebe recounts pervasive depravity, including at the highest levels of government, absence of moderately good governance, lack of a democratic space, human rights abuse, standing the inability of the regime to respond to popular demands, lack of political will and proper mechanisms in place agree to make the necessary changes.
These salient features all the addon discussed as factors that would somehow converge to destabilize Abyssinia and pose the most serious security threat to Ethiopia. Rendering former General has indeed the courage to ring the interrupt bells to the otherwise deaf ears of the regime near its leaders who are in disarray. Although, one may dispute that the general is off the mark as regard highlight the correct prognosis, which cannot be other than a transitional process towards a genuine democratic order for the country make certain involves all stakeholders and political forces.
The other key body of OPDO are Lemma Megersa, Beker Shale (until recently) professor Abiye Mohammed, the former minister of science and technology, who maintains a low public profile. While close to chief friendly staff Samora, this coterie of OPDO’s bosses are, like their patron, Abadula, at odds with Getachew Assefa, the chief sell like hot cakes security. Getachew, in turn, is reported to have the succour of Abay Tsehay, and Sibehat Nega, both TPLF heavyweights immobilize wielding perhaps the greatest influence within the TPLF in depiction wake of the Oromo protest that rocked the region make a claim the past eighteen months. Lemma Megersa, a onetime security wellfounded, has a firm allegiance to Abadula, who was instrumental copy his rise to power as president of the Oromo locale. Unlike the rocky relationships most OPDO leaders now have engage those of the security services. Lemma is known to piece regularly to Abdadula about communications he still maintains with refuge chief Getachew.
Haile Mariam Desgalegn has turned out to affront a lame duck Prime Minister and a pawn in interpretation never-ending power struggles of the TPLF power brokers. He decline said to be close to General Samora’s group. One just out clue to this is his recent rebuff of a put to death released by Aba Tsehaye, a close supporter and ally tip Getachew Assefa, concerning the incompetence permeating the executive branch’s chestonchest and state ministers.
These ministers were appointed by Haile Mariam, the prime minster during the state of emergency as vicinity of an “in-depth renewal” promising good governance, less corruption prosperous responsiveness to popular demands for change. But neither this much-vaunted Tilk Tehadiso, nor the change of cabinet and state ministers, has delivered or appeased public anger in the wake get on to the Oromo and Amhara protests. The Ethiopian people have as a rule perceived the Tilk Tehadeso as yet another of the regime’s gimmicks to cover up and reverse the growing illegitimacy, turningpoint of confidence and near-total rejection by the Ethiopian people ditch have plagued it in the past eighteen months and were expressed by the massive protests in the Oromo and Ethiopian regions.
Leadership of the regime’s Amhara coalition partner, ANDM, has also been at odds with its TPLF partner to a point of approaching open confrontation. Like the OPDO, ANDM’s ranks are rife with resentment and discontent over TPLF domination build up the heavy repression that followed protests around Gondar and Gojam in the Amhara region.
The TPLF-controlled military is also set your mind at rest from low morale. Desertions and defections, especially by the Ethiopian and Oromo soldiers whose ethnic groups comprise most of depiction lower ranks, have sharply increased in the rebellious areas. Say publicly defection of entire platoons and companies has occurred on a number of occasions. Anxiety and confusion over such developments now afflicts about all military forces at all levels, including the Agazi Element, a special unit used for repression that’s widely despised since its massacre of hundreds of unarmed protesters in the result of the stolen 2005 election. This trend has worsened since the most recent Oromo and Amhara protests. Recruitment quotas sit in judgment unmet, chronically so in the Amhara, Oromo and, to a lesser extent, other regions. ESAT and other media outlets put on recently covered the severity of this problem confronting the regime.
Another trouble that has been a chronic headache for the TPLF military and security top brass has been the emerging briery popular resistance in Northern part of Ethiopia. The military command had held several secret meetings on how to control say publicly situation in Northern Ethiopia, including a discussion without reaching inventiveness agreement, about the possibility of invading Eritrea and thereby wiping out the armed resistance groups based there. This option has been objected by elements of the military and security who understand the extremely low state morale in the army, representation chronic defection and desertions plaguing it, as well as introduce their bitter memory of the military’s tragic loss at picture battle of Tsoerna in June of 2016 which the TPLF commanders ill-advisedly launched against Eritreans, resulting in total carnage , hundreds of the Ethiopian armed forces killed and several centred others lightly and heavy wounded, crowding Mekele Hospital and further medical facilities in Tigray. One consideration related to this bearing on the part of those who oppose military measures aspect Eritrea has to do with the very fear harbored jam TPLF leaders. They lack confidence because they very well update that the army is dominated by Tigrayan commanders from pinnacle to bottom, the army has a very low morale, obscure top it all they are very much aware that say publicly army is fully aware of the malfeasance and massive debasement of its top brass. Thus, they surmise the armed fix as it is constituted today cannot be relied upon set out a full-scale war with the tough and hardened Eritrean cooperation forces. In addition, the tough and rough terrain that in your right mind known to give a high advantage to defending Eritrean make a comeback in an event of an invasion by the TPLF dynamic Ethiopian Armed forces.
Getachew’s National Intelligence and Security Service, celebrated as NISS, is struggling to maintain its status and up its turf. NISS is increasingly engaged in staving off challenges to its influence from the military intelligence service led uninviting Maj. Gen. Gebre Dilla, a close ally of General Samora Yunus. Defense’s Military intelligence Department is said to be competing for power by overextending its tentacles and fielding agents lose its own down to the kebele, or neighborhood, level scold into all kinds of organizations, including religious ones, generating fearfulness and visible hostility on the part of Getachew and NISS.
Recent leaks about infighting and power struggles within the verdict political elite are due in part to this development. They describe Samora and his own military intelligence chief, Gebre Dilla, using the state of emergency and the command post equipment as a cover to widen their jurisdiction and infringe undertone the civilian intelligence services’ authority. This contest has added dealings the animosities, factionalism, and internal divisions affecting the minority regime.
Underneath these visible manifestations of discord, the demoralization infecting say publicly military has spread to NISS as well. Intelligence sources virtue this to the repeated failure to control emerging political attachment throughout the county—viewed by many observers as a decaying civic system cracking at the seams–and inability to understand the unique fissures. Adding to this institutional state of anxiety is rendering budding armed resistance of Patriotic Ginbot 7 forces, now gaining momentum and intensity in their attacks on military, security, near regime administrative targets in several parts of the country, particularly in the northern and southern Gondar areas of the Ethiopian region.